Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  42.0  46.6  49.2  51.7  64.4  94.1 104.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  39.0  39.0  18.0  19.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  91.5  74.4  25.0   9.1  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  68.0  48.0  62.0  84.0  74.0 133.0 111.0  U  N  N  N  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0   2.0   7.0  17.0  13.0  53.0 115.0  80.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%