Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  50.0  47.6  37.9  49.1  68.7 101.6 107.3  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  46.0  43.0  45.0  29.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6  65.0  26.2  11.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  67.0  51.0  48.0  62.0 100.0 181.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  12.0  21.0  10.0  48.0 102.0 125.0 121.0  N  U VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%