Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.1  46.4  37.9  41.8  47.6  83.5 102.5 110.3 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  46.0  41.0  37.0  53.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  49.3  15.1   8.9  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  51.0  48.0  65.0  75.0 149.0 125.0 132.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  18.0  10.0   3.0  61.0  97.0 131.0  85.0  U VU  U  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%