Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.9  50.0  52.5  55.7  86.5  98.2 102.9 105.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  40.0  43.0  25.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  42.8  16.8   7.1   3.1  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  65.0  41.0  60.0 158.0 133.0 123.0  62.0  N  N  N  N VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -1.0  21.0  46.0  56.0  90.0  82.0  94.0  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%