Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00    143.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  40.3  44.1  50.6  67.7  74.2  77.8  83.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  32.0  21.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 132.0  82.2  55.0  45.4  42.7  38.4  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0 113.0 143.0 163.0 118.0 118.0 114.0  74.0  N  F VF VF  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  66.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0  40.0  46.0  39.0  40.0  44.0  56.0  15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%