Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    159.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  10.2   7.2   9.0  14.1  19.8  37.6  56.9  F  F VF  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  60.0  60.0  54.0  52.0  42.0  29.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 104.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  54.0  33.0  17.0  37.0  92.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  14.0  11.0   8.0   1.0  46.0  96.0 155.0  U  U  U  U  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        4.4%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       41.6%       28.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       21.4%       15.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       21.4%       13.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       21.4%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.9%       58.5%       39.2%
 55kt / 36h       15.8%       36.5%       26.2%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       41.5%       41.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       32.0%       28.4%
 65kt / 72h       30.1%        9.1%       19.6%