Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  10.4   8.7  13.8   9.8  18.4  40.5  55.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  49.0  60.0  57.0  37.0  24.0  14.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3  61.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  37.0  24.0  36.0  73.0 105.0  99.0 150.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -5.0  36.0  64.0  68.0  N  N  N  F  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%       13.4%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       33.8%       64.5%       49.2%
 30kt / 24h       19.4%       46.7%       33.1%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       46.7%       31.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       46.7%       25.2%
 45kt / 36h       31.6%       79.0%       55.3%
 55kt / 36h       24.5%       66.4%       45.5%
 55kt / 48h       48.0%       60.3%       54.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       59.3%       42.0%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%       17.2%       20.9%