Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    156.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  10.7  16.2  15.2  27.0  44.6  60.3  67.6  F  F  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  53.0  40.0  30.0  22.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  94.4  48.3  26.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  57.0  69.0  87.0  86.0 113.0 136.0  32.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0 -16.0  40.0  80.0  67.0  31.0  F  F  F VF VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%       10.0%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.1%       48.1%       34.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       30.1%       21.4%
 35kt / 24h        9.4%       30.1%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       30.1%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       19.6%       50.9%       35.2%
 55kt / 36h       11.3%       26.9%       19.1%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       13.8%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        7.7%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.5%        0.9%