Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    153.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  19.5  32.1  45.5  61.3  71.0  70.1  75.2  F  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  36.0  24.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9  59.2  20.1  10.3  14.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 111.0 106.0 103.0 141.0  73.0   1.0 -48.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  23.0  33.0  36.0  49.0  50.0  14.0  44.0  N VU VU VU VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%       10.2%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       25.1%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       12.1%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%       12.1%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       12.1%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        4.8%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%