Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    153.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  26.6  41.7  44.6  46.8  50.8  54.2  73.8  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  18.0  12.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 107.9  79.3  35.0  21.2  12.0  20.1  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  84.0  96.0 127.0 154.0  36.0 -18.0 -59.0  F  N  F  F VF  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  67.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0  20.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  60.0 115.0  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        3.3%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%