Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40    153.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  40.2  44.6  49.4  67.1  70.2  69.4  92.5  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  21.0  11.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 109.6  86.6  76.0  22.1   2.9   7.0   9.2  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0 124.0  99.0  91.0  24.0   0.0 -69.0 -85.0  F  F  F  F  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  53.0  52.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  53.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  33.0  60.0  79.0  76.0   9.0 -11.0 -14.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        3.6%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        5.8%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.9%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%