Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.70    160.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.9  54.5  50.7  45.4  45.9  33.6  24.7  19.5 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.4  23.4  16.3  20.1  22.3  29.1  64.4  77.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  22.0 -30.0 -50.0 -60.0 -59.0 -73.0 -12.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   2.0  12.0 -12.0   3.0   4.0  23.0  29.0 VU  N  U  F  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons