Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.90    162.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.4  50.7  45.7  44.1  38.7  27.1  20.8  22.1 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.0  15.9  19.1  21.7  29.1  34.2  63.0  77.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0 -30.0 -50.0 -70.0 -40.0 -66.0 -24.0 -24.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  46.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  13.0 -10.0 -24.0   7.0  15.0  39.0  17.0  N  U  F VF  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons