Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152020 200930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.10    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    162.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  52.8  43.6  53.3  39.9  28.6  19.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.3  30.1  32.8  33.4  39.1  64.3  81.5  94.4 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -31.0 -41.0 -61.0 -58.0 -64.0  -1.0 -23.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  41.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  18.0  -1.0  12.0   0.0  34.0  40.0   8.0 VU VU  N  U  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons