Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    139.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    160.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  19.0  26.4  33.9  45.1  49.7  52.7  44.8  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  59.0  55.0  46.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  48.0  63.0  82.0  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0  19.0  28.0  14.0   4.0   6.0 -20.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        6.1%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.6%       29.2%       21.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       12.4%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%       12.4%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       12.2%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       20.8%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        7.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        5.5%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.3%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%        3.1%        5.8%