Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.9  28.3  26.6  28.6  29.2  42.6  52.7  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  53.0  53.0  47.0  47.0  41.0  37.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 107.9  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  35.0  45.0  71.0  71.0  92.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  11.0   7.0   9.0  18.0   2.0  17.0  N  U  U  N  U VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        6.3%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       31.4%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       17.8%       14.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       17.8%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       15.4%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       26.9%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       11.0%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       15.3%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        6.2%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        3.9%        5.1%