Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30    137.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.0  19.8  20.5  25.0  30.0  37.8  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  40.0  35.0  40.0  45.0  33.0  22.0  18.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  97.9  87.4  69.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  41.0  50.0  39.0  65.0  23.0  73.0  60.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  52.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   1.0   5.0  11.0  10.0  30.0  29.0  63.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.4%       15.1%       15.8%
 25kt / 24h       34.5%       51.0%       42.8%
 30kt / 24h       27.5%       41.3%       34.4%
 35kt / 24h       27.5%       41.3%       34.4%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       40.7%       24.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.1%       38.2%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h       11.2%       20.1%       15.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.7%       18.1%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        7.4%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        1.5%        1.3%