Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  27.4  30.6  35.2  37.4  48.5  60.7  61.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  40.0  37.0  29.0  24.0  20.0  18.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  92.3  83.6  73.5  68.0  73.5  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  47.0  85.0  93.0  34.0  76.0  66.0  73.0  U  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  54.0  52.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  19.0  22.0  43.0  40.0  83.0 -10.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.9%       24.9%       27.9%
 25kt / 24h       37.7%       45.1%       41.4%
 30kt / 24h       30.6%       39.1%       34.8%
 35kt / 24h       30.6%       39.1%       34.8%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%       33.3%       20.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%       15.6%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        5.9%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%