Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  30.9  37.8  38.4  32.4  41.2  41.3  51.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  28.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  17.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  89.6  80.7  74.4  66.6  61.2  66.6  57.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0 111.0 110.0  43.0  79.0  73.0  53.0  67.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  57.0  48.0  39.0  43.0  40.0  42.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  32.0  11.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  35.0  16.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.6%       15.2%       21.9%
 25kt / 24h       21.1%       22.6%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h       19.4%       15.6%       17.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.4%       15.6%       17.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       14.4%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%        6.4%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        1.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%