Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.4  37.2  36.6  45.6  39.0  45.8  29.6  31.6  U  U  U VU  U VU  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  15.0  17.0  15.0  16.0   9.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.6  54.8  56.6  58.5  58.5  58.5  56.6  64.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  95.0  89.0  74.0  35.0  50.0  24.0   2.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  46.0  43.0  47.0  45.0  32.0  24.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.0  39.0  31.0  69.0  44.0   3.0  -9.0  -9.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.4%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons