Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10    133.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  49.8  50.3  51.9  71.8  88.8 121.6 135.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  69.4  44.6  15.7  37.2  -2.9 -11.3 -26.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  56.0  55.0  32.0  50.0  74.0 102.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  42.0  47.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  40.0  41.0  27.0  56.0  73.0  47.0 -15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons