Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    133.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.6  44.0  41.7  43.8  50.7  44.5  54.1  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0   6.0   9.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.6  70.5  68.5  68.5  63.0  57.7  59.4  66.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  57.0  35.0  43.0  73.0  96.0 104.0 102.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  39.0  40.0  43.0  43.0  35.0  29.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  28.0  21.0  10.0  15.0   1.0   6.0  -3.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons