Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.6  44.9  47.9  39.4  39.8  28.8  21.2  16.2 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   4.0   7.0  25.0  29.0  28.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  90.5  88.5  88.5 102.9 109.6 114.3 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  24.0  20.0   9.0 -33.0 -32.0 -17.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  38.0  33.0  31.0  31.0  32.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   1.0  -5.0 -10.0  -9.0  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons