Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  40.3  38.5  30.2  23.2  13.5  12.2  18.0 VU  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  26.0  29.0  35.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        101.5 107.9 112.3 114.6 114.6 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -31.0 -29.0 -16.0 -12.0   0.0  -4.0 -15.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  31.0  26.0  27.0  27.0  26.0  29.0  29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        1.1%        2.4%