Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  33.3  27.6  21.5  14.1   6.9   7.4   9.7 VU  U  N  N  F VF VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  20.0  22.0  21.0  28.0  29.0  33.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 117.9 120.1 122.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -35.0 -28.0 -30.0  -8.0 -10.0  -9.0 -17.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  30.0  33.0  31.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%        2.9%        7.5%