Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    142.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  26.0  22.2  23.4  17.9  10.7  13.2  13.7  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  16.0  22.0  33.0  35.0  33.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 120.1 122.3 127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0 -34.0 -30.0 -26.0 -10.0 -30.0 -28.0 -15.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  31.0  29.0  29.0  26.0  28.0  27.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        3.5%        7.0%