Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162020 201015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80    143.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  42.6  45.9  56.1  66.8  60.0  49.0  56.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  20.0  17.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.6 147.0 140.1 133.6 118.0  76.7  66.6  54.6  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  10.0  22.0  45.0  61.0  74.0  53.0  15.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  55.0  59.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  70.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  15.0  16.0  19.0  23.0   1.0   3.0 -19.0  U  U  U VU VU  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%