Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172020 201010 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.2  26.4  30.1  30.1  39.7  37.3  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  46.0  38.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 110.5  49.2  57.8  67.0  68.2  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  77.0  93.0  81.0  80.0 106.0  83.0 137.0  F  N  F  N  N  F  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  73.0  76.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0 -11.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.5%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       18.7%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.0%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        6.0%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        5.8%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        9.8%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.2%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        1.2%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%