Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172020 201010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  24.1  26.3  23.7  25.7  27.0  27.1  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  39.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0  80.0  44.2  50.0  57.7  56.7  55.7  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  79.0  91.0  76.0  76.0  70.0  97.0  55.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons