Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172020 201010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  27.7  28.0  27.4  36.5  32.9  32.9  32.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  52.7  48.7  59.3  79.6  93.0  93.0  93.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  60.0  59.0  72.0  94.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons