Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172020 201011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  28.1  25.0  31.7  43.0  34.8  34.8  34.8  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.0  49.7  59.3  72.2  84.3  87.7  87.7  87.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  45.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  81.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   8.0   7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U  U  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons