Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172020 201011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  19.9  24.2  28.7  26.5  32.0  34.5  32.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.7  36.9  39.2  42.4  45.0  40.0  46.8  42.4 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  84.0  78.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons