Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172020 201011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  28.0  32.2  31.8  32.2  33.9  37.3  40.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.7  43.4  49.1  53.7  56.7  57.7  58.8  63.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  50.0  61.0  40.0  61.0  72.0  60.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  83.0  88.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  14.0  13.0  18.0   4.0  -7.0  -1.0   6.0  U  U  U VU  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons