Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182020 201013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.1  16.7  17.9  30.0  24.5  31.1  59.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  78.0  39.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.2  90.5  63.6  24.7   1.3  -5.9  -7.3  -7.8  U  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  85.0  89.0  73.0  37.0  19.0  11.0   1.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  81.0  82.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  23.0  16.0  19.0  35.0  25.0  10.0   7.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        4.3%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%        6.4%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        2.5%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons