Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182020 201015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.0  17.7  16.9  14.4  11.1   9.4  10.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  56.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         66.7  72.0  68.8  66.7 119.4 119.4 140.0 140.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   3.0  -1.0  -4.0   5.0 -14.0 -16.0 -31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   9.0   7.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        2.1%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        0.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.4%        1.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons