Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182020 201015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    101.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.5  17.0  16.9  13.6  10.8   7.5  11.6  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  51.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         45.1  49.0  47.8  51.4  70.7  65.0 130.7 116.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  -4.0  -8.0  -1.0   2.0 -16.0 -20.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0  12.0  11.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons