Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.3  18.6  16.9  27.4  31.0  37.5  27.7  F  F  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  79.0   0.0  60.0  68.0  50.0  37.0  24.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0  71.7 122.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  U  N  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0 105.0  93.0  90.0  66.0  50.0  60.0  16.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%       10.7%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       22.5%       38.4%       30.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       19.4%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%       19.4%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       16.3%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       20.3%       50.3%       35.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.4%       28.2%       20.3%
 55kt / 48h       30.9%       22.7%       26.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.9%       22.2%       22.5%
 65kt / 72h       24.4%       24.8%       24.6%