Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.9  23.6  29.8  34.2  40.6  51.0  40.6  F  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  20.0   0.0  48.0  51.0  42.0  33.0  27.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 107.4  65.5 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3  F  N  U  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  69.0  58.0  29.0  17.0   3.0  -3.0  19.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  68.0  69.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  11.0  17.0  14.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        6.0%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       18.4%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        7.4%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        7.4%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.4%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       23.7%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        9.6%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        5.7%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.4%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%