Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  27.9  36.2  32.3  40.7  49.8  48.6  43.7  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  54.0  71.0  68.0  51.0  38.0  32.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  33.0  38.0  27.0  21.0 -10.0 -27.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  73.0  71.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0  -6.0 -16.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        5.4%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%       25.3%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       12.8%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       12.8%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        9.3%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       22.2%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        8.5%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        3.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%