Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    120.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  30.2  30.7  31.3  44.3  45.7  43.2  46.8  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  74.0  64.0  59.0  47.0  35.0  33.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  38.0  28.0  25.0   1.0 -47.0   0.0 -23.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0 -10.0 -13.0 -13.0  U  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       18.5%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        8.3%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        8.3%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.2%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       12.0%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%