Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  25.1  26.0  31.2  36.2  38.3  38.7  28.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  44.0  41.0  38.0  39.0  36.0  44.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  47.0 -10.0 -16.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        5.7%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.4%       32.7%       24.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       20.4%       13.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       20.4%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       14.5%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       21.4%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        7.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        8.7%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        5.5%        3.6%