Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  27.5  35.7  37.8  38.2  36.2  36.6  39.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  26.0  20.0  22.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 110.1  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  25.0   0.0 -13.0 -35.0  -1.0  -8.0 -32.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -8.0 -11.0  -8.0 -17.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.5%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       16.5%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        8.2%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        8.2%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.0%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        8.8%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%