Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  30.9  33.3  33.5  34.7  42.4  46.4  39.6  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  32.0  28.0  22.0  16.0  19.0   7.0  91.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  75.5  56.1  81.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0 -17.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0  -9.0 -14.0 -19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -7.0 -13.0 -18.0 -13.0 -23.0 -18.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.9%       25.9%       34.9%
 25kt / 24h       43.7%       49.3%       46.5%
 30kt / 24h       43.7%       45.7%       44.7%
 35kt / 24h       43.7%       45.7%       44.7%
 40kt / 24h       11.0%       38.5%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       25.4%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       11.8%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        5.2%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%