Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  36.2  35.0  33.5  35.4  40.7  42.8  41.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  43.0  37.0  31.0  23.0   8.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  73.5  66.2  54.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -1.0  -4.0  11.0  -5.0 -19.0 -15.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  69.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0 -15.0 -10.0 -13.0 -14.0 -27.0 -11.0  N  N VF  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%        8.0%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       24.0%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       17.8%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       17.8%       16.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       12.5%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        8.2%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%