Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.0  23.5  25.2  33.7  38.5  39.1  47.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  27.0  21.0  17.0  18.0  25.0  88.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  87.3  56.0  68.5   7.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -20.0  34.0  44.0   9.0   0.0   9.0  27.0  U VU  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  62.0  69.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0  -5.0  -8.0 -17.0 -13.0  -9.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.7%       14.5%       15.6%
 25kt / 24h       25.3%       36.6%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       25.3%       33.4%       29.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.3%       33.4%       29.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       30.2%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       12.4%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        4.6%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%