Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  20.7  22.6  20.8  20.5  20.3  20.3  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  29.0  23.0  23.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  89.3  84.6  75.7  58.0  41.5  29.2   9.1  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  54.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  25.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.5%       31.9%       42.7%
 25kt / 24h       51.3%       59.0%       55.1%
 30kt / 24h       51.3%       59.0%       55.1%
 35kt / 24h       51.3%       59.0%       55.1%
 40kt / 24h       26.3%       56.9%       41.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.8%       26.0%       25.4%
 55kt / 36h       11.6%       13.2%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        6.8%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%