Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  24.8  25.9  22.2  18.3  23.9  22.7  23.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  13.0  15.0   6.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  79.3  77.0  72.3  57.4  39.3  16.7  13.2  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  47.0  13.0  14.0  33.0  22.0   9.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.4%       27.9%       43.2%
 25kt / 24h       49.6%       48.0%       48.8%
 30kt / 24h       49.6%       48.0%       48.8%
 35kt / 24h       49.6%       48.0%       48.8%
 40kt / 24h       20.8%       42.1%       31.5%
 45kt / 36h       32.9%       26.0%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h        9.5%       14.3%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.5%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%