Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  27.9  29.5  29.9  35.9  39.2  44.5  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  26.0  22.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  84.6  80.1  77.9  44.6  51.0  15.7 -15.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  42.0   9.0  33.0   8.0  15.0  39.0  34.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0 -10.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        7.6%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       19.5%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       15.9%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h       11.7%       15.9%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       12.1%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        2.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%