Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  25.1  26.0  25.7  30.2  30.9  33.8  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  15.0   0.0  65.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  87.0  82.3  77.9  61.6  10.0  49.3  -8.3  N  N  N  N  U VU  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  14.0  22.0  18.0  28.0   0.0  -1.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  16.0   7.0  10.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   5.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.6%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        8.2%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        5.4%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        5.4%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%