Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.4  29.4  30.4  33.9  30.6  39.2  36.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  18.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  85.1  80.7  74.4  32.9  61.2  -6.8   9.2  N  N  N  U VU  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  22.0  18.0  27.0  12.0   4.0  18.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   6.0   7.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.5%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%